How statistics won the war

A handful of serial numbers off captured tanks, one statistical formula, and the exact German production rate — because of course the Germans numbered them in order.

The guardian has an article on How a statistical formula won the war

Apparently, in the early forties, allies correctly calculated the rate at which Germany produced new tanks with the help of a simple statistical formula based on the serial numbers of captured tanks.

Sometimes the really simple assumptions work out just fine:

The statisticians believed that the Germans, being Germans, had logically numbered their tanks in the order in which they were produced. And this deduction turned out to be right.